What has already been done
Nine platforms. Same playbook. Real numbers.
Guild Garage Group Orlando, FL (garage doors)
Redwood Services Memphis, TN
- About $1.1B, about 17x on about $65M (2025) S55
Sila Services King of Prussia, PA
- About 3.5 years from MSCP entry to just under $100M EBITDA
- Deals 3, 6, 8, 11 a year (2021 to 2024) S114
- MSCP entry 2021: not disclosed
- Goldman Sachs Alternatives majority, Nov 2024 (terms not disclosed) S112
- Brands to 30+ (now 40+ on its site)
- Organic growth: not disclosed as a number
Champions Group Orange County, CA
- About 5 years to about $140M EBITDA S58
- About 2 deals a year after 2021 (Weak tracker)
- Odyssey entry: not disclosed
- Blackstone (BXPE) buyout, Feb 2026 (terms not disclosed) S106
- About $2.5B, about 18.5x (Feb 2026) S58
Wrench Group Atlanta, GA
- About 10x revenue in about 10 years
- Revenue about tripled under Leonard Green since 2019 S65
- Value not disclosed; EBITDA under $200M, debt over $1.2B, about 9x S65
TurnPoint Services Louisville, KY
- OMERS buyout Nov 2020 (terms not disclosed) S117
- Largest multiple of invested capital in Trivest history S118
Southern Home Services Maitland, FL
- "Doubled in size annually" in its first 3 years S68
- MSouth entry 2016 (not disclosed)
- Gryphon majority Oct 2021 (not disclosed) S69
- Value not disclosed
USA Hometown Experts Memphis, TN
- 7 states; $30M to $40M EBITDA S60
- About 4 years to $30M to $40M EBITDA S60
- Equity and debt: not disclosed
- Not disclosed
- Brand list and operating metrics: not disclosed
- Sale launched Apr 2026 (Citizens); value not yet known S60
EBITDA by years since start
- Log scale. Our lines: calculated in the v3 workbook. Dots: reported EBITDA S49 S101 S103 S55 S110 S20 S58 S60 S65.
- Start = sponsor entry or launch: Apex 2019, Guild 2023 so first deals land in Year 1 (2024), Redwood 2020, Sila 2021, Champions 2021, USA Hometown 2022, Wrench 2016. Sila and Champions had history before their sponsor.
- Guild Year 1 is a founder run rate claim; USA Hometown plotted at $35M (midpoint of $30M to $40M); Wrench is an upper bound.
Time to $25M, $50M, $100M EBITDA
| Platform | $25M | $50M | $100M | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guild | Year 1 (claim) | Year 2 | not yet | close to $50M, Year 2 |
| Redwood | by Year 5 | by Year 5 | Year 6 (with Sierra) | over $100M, Year 6 |
| Sila | not disclosed | not disclosed | about 3.5 years (just under) | just under $100M |
| Champions | not disclosed | not disclosed | by Year 5 | about $140M, Year 5 |
| Apex | not disclosed | not disclosed | by Year 7 | about $500M, Year 7 |
| USA Hometown | by Year 4 | not yet | not yet | $30M to $40M, Year 4 |
| Wrench | not disclosed | not disclosed | by Year 10 | under $200M |
| TurnPoint, Southern | not disclosed | not disclosed | not disclosed | revenue only |
| Us, Redwood pace (calculated) | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 6 | $131M, Year 7 |
| Us, Guild pace (calculated) | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | $221M, Year 7 |
| Us, Apex pace (calculated) | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 4 | $458M, Year 7 |
| Us, Optimized (calculated) | Year 7 | beyond Year 7 | beyond Year 7 | $30.8M, Year 7 |
Deals per year
- Apex: brands up 10 to 30 a year S125; about 60 add ons in 2025 S51
- Guild: about 15 a year from year 1 S101 S103
- TurnPoint: about 4 a year early (16 in 4 years), then 15 to 20 a year S116 S120
- Sila: 3, 6, 8, 11 a year S114
- Redwood: about 4 bigger partners a year, plus a 5 company platform in year 6 S111 S110
- Southern: about 2 to 5 a year; Champions about 2 a year (Weak trackers)
Our platform at their pace
Same deal count. Same company size. Our margin path. Side by side at the same age.
- Being AI native adds EBITDA because the business runs more efficiently: corporate cost of 1.5% of revenue (Base 2.0%) and a 20% seasoned unit margin (Base 15%). ASSUMPTION.
- Same exit curve as the market: 8x at $2M to $4M EBITDA, 11x at $7.5M, 14x at $15M, 16x at $35M, 17x at $65M+ (below the 18.5x and 20x prints) S58 S48
Guild pace: what they did, applied to us
- Deals: 15 a year from Year 1
- Average $10M revenue per deal (Guild: $300M+ / about 30, calculated)
- Entry at 5.5x, rising to 6.5x from Year 4 (ASSUMPTION; Guild said mid single digit)
| Age | Us (calculated) | Guild actual (sourced) |
|---|---|---|
| Year 2 | $585M EV 31 companies $327M revenue $36.4M EBITDA | over $800M value close to 30 deals $300M+ revenue close to $50M EBITDA S98 S103 |
| Year 3 | $1.17B EV 46 companies $500M revenue $69.0M EBITDA | not reached yet |
| Year 5 | $2.38B EV 76 companies $882M revenue $140M EBITDA | not reached yet |
| Year 7 | $3.76B EV 106 companies $1.32B revenue $221M EBITDA | not reached yet |
Redwood pace: what they did, applied to us
- Deals: 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 1, 4 (Redwood partner count by age)
- Partner size $15M rising to $26M revenue (Redwood average, calculated)
- Year 6: one Sierra style platform, 5 companies, $100M revenue
| Age | Us (calculated) | Redwood actual (sourced) |
|---|---|---|
| Year 2 | $174M EV 7 companies $128M revenue $13.1M EBITDA | not disclosed |
| Year 3 | $466M EV 12 companies $247M revenue $30.1M EBITDA | 11 partners $250M revenue EBITDA not disclosed S108 |
| Year 5 | $1.30B EV 20 companies $495M revenue $76.7M EBITDA | about $1.1B value 19 partners $500M+ revenue about $65M EBITDA S54 S55 |
| Year 7 | $2.23B EV 30 companies $805M revenue $131M EBITDA | not reached yet Year 6: 24 partners, EBITDA over $100M S110 |
Apex pace: what they did, applied to us
- Deals: 4, 10, 15, 25, 27, 22, 25 (Apex brand count by age, Weak tracker)
- Average $10M rising to $22M revenue (ASSUMPTION; Apex about $28M to $40M per brand, calculated)
- Year 5: one Frontier style platform, 3 companies, $60M revenue (ASSUMPTION)
| Age | Us (calculated) | Apex actual (sourced) |
|---|---|---|
| Year 2 | $257M EV 15 companies $179M revenue $18.0M EBITDA | about 15 brands S125 revenue, EBITDA not disclosed |
| Year 3 | $784M EV 30 companies $416M revenue $47.7M EBITDA | about 30 brands S125 not disclosed |
| Year 5 | $3.59B EV 85 companies $1.61B revenue $211M EBITDA | about 85 brands S125 Year 4: $3.4B continuation vehicle S46 |
| Year 7 | $7.78B EV 132 companies $2.91B revenue $458M EBITDA | about $10B value 75 prominent brands (107 tracked) $3B+ revenue about $500M EBITDA S47 S48 S49 |
Capital required vs what they actually raised
| Pace | New equity by Year 2 | Debt at Year 2 | New equity later | What the real platform raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guild pace | $96.9M | $79.3M | $145M (Year 3) | $40M equity plus $85M credit facility, about 2 years S101 |
| Redwood pace | $38.9M | $31.8M | $168M (Year 5) | Founding capital not disclosed; Altas majority at about $1.1B (Year 5) S54 S55 |
| Apex pace | $52.5M | $43.0M | $1.03B (Year 7) | $3.4B continuation plus $450M (Year 4); about $2B Apollo minority (Year 7); $3.6B of debt facilities in 2026 (calculated sum) S46 S47 S127 |
- New equity = cumulative acquisition spend less debt (calculated). Debt = lower of 3.2x EBITDA or 45% of spend. Free cash flow not credited, so equity needs are overstated.
- Add ons priced at 10% margin at close and a size based purchase multiple (ASSUMPTION; Sierra about 11x on about $20M S110).
Guild pace: year by year (calculated)
| Year | Cos | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Multiple | EV | Spend to date | Debt | New equity | Equity value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 1 | $14.1M | $1.32M | 9.4% | 6.0x | $7.92M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $7.92M |
| Year 1 | 16 | $165M | $14.1M | 8.5% | 13.6x | $192M | $88.1M | $39.7M | $48.5M | $152M |
| Year 2 | 31 | $327M | $36.4M | 11.2% | 16.0x | $585M | $176M | $79.3M | $96.9M | $505M |
| Year 3 | 46 | $500M | $69.0M | 13.8% | 17.0x | $1.17B | $264M | $119M | $145M | $1.05B |
| Year 4 | 61 | $684M | $103M | 15.1% | 17.0x | $1.75B | $368M | $166M | $203M | $1.59B |
| Year 5 | 76 | $882M | $140M | 15.8% | 17.0x | $2.38B | $472M | $212M | $260M | $2.16B |
| Year 6 | 91 | $1.09B | $179M | 16.4% | 17.0x | $3.04B | $576M | $259M | $317M | $2.78B |
| Year 7 | 106 | $1.32B | $221M | 16.7% | 17.0x | $3.76B | $680M | $306M | $374M | $3.45B |
Redwood pace: year by year (calculated)
| Year | Cos | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Multiple | EV | Spend to date | Debt | New equity | Equity value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 1 | $14.1M | $1.32M | 9.4% | 6.0x | $7.92M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $7.92M |
| Year 1 | 3 | $45.1M | $3.87M | 8.6% | 8.0x | $31.0M | $18.6M | $8.36M | $10.2M | $22.6M |
| Year 2 | 7 | $128M | $13.1M | 10.3% | 13.3x | $174M | $70.8M | $31.8M | $38.9M | $142M |
| Year 3 | 12 | $247M | $30.1M | 12.2% | 15.5x | $466M | $144M | $64.8M | $79.2M | $401M |
| Year 4 | 17 | $390M | $53.3M | 13.7% | 16.6x | $885M | $243M | $109M | $134M | $776M |
| Year 5 | 20 | $495M | $76.7M | 15.5% | 17.0x | $1.30B | $305M | $137M | $168M | $1.17B |
| Year 6 | 26 | $655M | $104M | 15.9% | 17.0x | $1.77B | $442M | $199M | $243M | $1.57B |
| Year 7 | 30 | $805M | $131M | 16.3% | 17.0x | $2.23B | $525M | $236M | $289M | $2.00B |
Apex pace: year by year (calculated)
| Year | Cos | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Multiple | EV | Spend to date | Debt | New equity | Equity value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 1 | $14.1M | $1.32M | 9.4% | 6.0x | $7.92M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $7.92M |
| Year 1 | 5 | $55.1M | $4.72M | 8.6% | 8.6x | $40.7M | $23.5M | $10.6M | $12.9M | $30.1M |
| Year 2 | 15 | $179M | $18.0M | 10.1% | 14.3x | $257M | $95.5M | $43.0M | $52.5M | $214M |
| Year 3 | 30 | $416M | $47.7M | 11.5% | 16.4x | $784M | $235M | $106M | $129M | $678M |
| Year 4 | 55 | $946M | $113M | 11.9% | 17.0x | $1.91B | $614M | $276M | $337M | $1.64B |
| Year 5 | 85 | $1.61B | $211M | 13.1% | 17.0x | $3.59B | $1.08B | $487M | $595M | $3.10B |
| Year 6 | 107 | $2.21B | $328M | 14.8% | 17.0x | $5.57B | $1.46B | $655M | $800M | $4.92B |
| Year 7 | 132 | $2.91B | $458M | 15.7% | 17.0x | $7.78B | $1.88B | $846M | $1.03B | $6.93B |
Optimized: year by year (calculated)
| Year | Cos | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Multiple | EV | Spend to date | Debt | New equity | Equity value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 1 | $14.1M | $1.32M | 9.4% | 6.0x | $7.92M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $7.92M |
| Year 1 | 4 | $21.1M | $1.83M | 8.7% | 7.6x | $13.9M | $3.13M | $1.41M | $1.72M | $12.5M |
| Year 2 | 8 | $32.6M | $3.73M | 11.5% | 8.0x | $29.9M | $8.26M | $3.72M | $4.54M | $26.1M |
| Year 3 | 13 | $49.8M | $6.79M | 13.6% | 10.4x | $70.5M | $15.8M | $7.13M | $8.72M | $63.4M |
| Year 4 | 18 | $73.3M | $10.4M | 14.1% | 12.1x | $126M | $27.9M | $12.6M | $15.3M | $113M |
| Year 5 | 24 | $108M | $15.6M | 14.4% | 14.1x | $219M | $45.8M | $20.6M | $25.2M | $199M |
| Year 6 | 30 | $152M | $22.5M | 14.8% | 14.8x | $332M | $67.2M | $30.2M | $37.0M | $302M |
| Year 7 | 36 | $199M | $30.8M | 15.5% | 15.6x | $481M | $88.6M | $39.9M | $48.7M | $441M |
Guild pace: money, team, payoff
15 deals a year from Year 1. Here is the money, the team and the payoff.
Value
Capital by year (calculated)
| Year | Deals | Companies | Spend this year | Spend to date | Debt | New equity to date | Team cost above budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 15 | 16 | $88.1M | $88.1M | $39.7M | $48.5M | $424K |
| Year 2 | 15 | 31 | $88.1M | $176M | $79.3M | $96.9M | $700K |
| Year 3 | 15 | 46 | $88.1M | $264M | $119M | $145M | $507K |
| Year 5 | 15 | 76 | $104M | $472M | $212M | $260M | $0 |
- Guild itself: $40M equity plus an $85M credit facility for its first about 30 deals S101.
- Our Year 2 total: $96.9M equity plus $79.3M debt (calculated). Seller rollover of 20% to 30% (the Guild structure) would cut cash equity further.
Team to hire (ASSUMPTION, built from what Guild, TurnPoint, Redwood and Apex ran)
| Role | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platform president (operator) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| CFO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Head of M&A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Deal sourcing and diligence associates | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Integration lead and integration managers | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Controller, accounting, AP and payroll | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| FP&A and data | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Systems (ServiceTitan, ERP, phones) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Technician recruiting | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Training academy (lead plus trainers) | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| HR and benefits | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Procurement and fleet | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Legal and compliance | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Partner coaches (Redwood style) | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Marketing and call center lead | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Total team (calculated) | 22 | 40 | 56 | 87 |
| Team cost at $150K loaded per head (ASSUMPTION) | $3.30M | $6.00M | $8.40M | $13.1M |
| Corporate cost budget in the model (calculated) | $2.88M | $5.30M | $7.89M | $13.6M |
| Revenue per corporate head (calculated) | $7.50M | $8.17M | $8.92M | $10.1M |
- Guild: 20 person exec team at about 14 deals; ServiceTitan, Sage, ADP everywhere S101
- TurnPoint: 140 to 145 corporate staff at $1.4B revenue S120
- Redwood: Partner Support Center with coaches, finance, accounting, marketing, HR; technician universities S108
- Apex: 300+ Apex trained leaders; 8,000+ technicians supported S47
- Hire first (Month 0 to 3): Head of M&A, CFO, integration lead, controller, 2 deal associates, 2 recruiters (ASSUMPTION).
Risk strip
- Started 2017 in Florida; Peak Rock 2021 with 10 locations, 250 staff
- About 15 month buying streak; $100M+ paid to sellers up front
- Each unit kept its own operating model: "a lack of controls" (restructuring officer)
- $250M+ debt; Chapter 11 in Mar 2025; seller rollover went to zero
- One back office from day one (Guild rule: ServiceTitan, Sage, ADP)
- Debt capped at 3.2x EBITDA in every case (Wrench ran about 9x S65)
- Integration team hired before deal 1
Sources
Labels: Company (press release by buyer or seller), Press reported (unnamed sources), Press (trade), Weak (trackers, secondary summaries, podcasts). Calculated figures come from the v3 workbook. Accessed Oct 8, 2026.
| Code | Source | Date | Label | URL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S20 | Homepros: Goldman to acquire Sila (about $1.7B, about 17x) | Nov 2024 | Press reported | link |
| S45 | Alpine launches Apex Service Partners | Jul 2019 | Company | link |
| S46 | Alpine closes $3.4B single asset continuation transaction (Apex) | Oct 25, 2023 | Company | link |
| S47 | Apollo minority investment in Apex (75 brands, 46 states, $3B+ revenue) | May 28, 2026 | Company | link |
| S48 | Reuters via MarketScreener: Apex minority stake at $10B valuation | 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S49 | MDM: Apex nets $2B investment from Apollo (about $500M EBITDA) | May 28, 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S51 | Hardwire News: Apex about 60 add ons in 2025 | May 10, 2026 | Weak | link |
| S52 | Reuters: Morgan Stanley to sell Sila to Goldman (about $1.5B) | Nov 11, 2024 | Press reported | link |
| S54 | Altas investment in Redwood ($500M+ revenue, 19 partners) | May 8, 2025 | Company | link |
| S55 | Homepros: Redwood $1.1B deal (about $65M EBITDA, about 17x) | May 8, 2025 | Press reported | link |
| S56 | Redwood acquires Sierra Platform ($100M+ revenue, 19,000 memberships) | May 4, 2026 | Company | link |
| S58 | Homepros: Champions $2.5B Blackstone deal (about 18.5x on about $140M) | Feb 17, 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S60 | Homepros: USA Hometown exploring sale ($30M to $40M EBITDA) | May 7, 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S62 | Investcorp sale of Wrench to Leonard Green | Apr 8, 2019 | Company | link |
| S63 | TSG and Oak Hill minority in Wrench (16 brands, 1.75M customers) | Nov 9, 2022 | Company | link |
| S64 | Private Equity Wire: Wrench $1.3B private credit | Sept 16, 2025 | Press reported | link |
| S65 | LegalClarity: Who owns Wrench (summarizing S&P) | Jun 16, 2026 | Weak | link |
| S66 | Construction In Focus: TurnPoint ($30M to $1.4B, 57 deals) | Mar 2023 | Company claim in trade press | link |
| S67 | MSouth acquires Southern Air & Heat (2 brands, 70,000 homeowners) | May 16, 2016 | Company | link |
| S68 | Southern HVAC CEO release (7 brands, doubled annually) | Mar 18, 2019 | Company | link |
| S69 | Gryphon majority investment in Southern (15 brands, 650 staff) | Oct 4, 2021 | Company | link |
| S70 | Homepros: Air Pros founder on the collapse | Sept 25, 2025 | Trade press interview | link |
| S98 | Oak Hill partners with Guild Garage Group; Reuters $800M+ deal | Mar to Apr 2026 | Company + Press reported | link |
| S101 | Acquiring Minds: Guild founder interview (capital, deal terms, pace) | Dec 9, 2024 | Company (founder claim) | link |
| S103 | Private Equity Wire: Oak Hill to acquire Guild ($300M+ revenue, about $50M EBITDA) | Mar 9, 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S104 | Odyssey acquires Service Champions (850 technicians, 6 trade names) | Jan 6, 2021 | Company | link |
| S105 | Odyssey: Champions Group Holdings rebrand (19 brands, 2,400 staff) | Aug 29, 2023 | Company | link |
| S106 | Blackstone to acquire Champions Group (150,000 members) | Feb 17, 2026 | Company | link |
| S107 | Union Main Group: Redwood entry Jan 2020 | n/a | Company | link |
| S108 | ACHR News: Redwood 11 partners, $250M, technician universities | Aug 21, 2023 | Press (trade) | link |
| S109 | To The Point podcast: Redwood 16 partners, $400M+ | Nov 19, 2024 | Weak | link |
| S110 | Homepros: Redwood buys Sierra for about $220M; total EBITDA over $100M | May 2026 | Press reported | link |
| S111 | Echelon Reports: Redwood platform file (brands by year) | Jul 29, 2026 | Weak | link |
| S112 | Morgan Stanley: MSCP agrees to sell Sila (30+ brands) | Nov 2024 | Company | link |
| S114 | PrivSource: Sila deals by year | 2026 | Weak | link |
| S115 | Investcorp partners with Wrench (about $150M revenue, 4 companies) | Mar 3, 2016 | Company | link |
| S116 | Trivest: sale of TurnPoint (16 add ons, revenue nearly 10x) | Nov 17, 2020 | Company | link |
| S117 | OMERS acquires TurnPoint (17 brands, 720 technicians) | Nov 17, 2020 | Company | link |
| S118 | Trivest: TurnPoint, largest multiple of invested capital in Trivest history | 2021 | Company | link |
| S119 | Southern Home Services acquisitions page (27+ brands, 12+ states) | 2026 | Company | link |
| S120 | Automotive Fleet: TurnPoint 60 brands, 15 to 20 deals a year, 140 to 145 HQ staff | Sept 18, 2023 | Press (trade) | link |
| S121 | MSouth: USA Hometown Experts, formed 2022, Fund IV | n/a | Company | link |
| S122 | MSouth Fund IV closes at $940M | Oct 5, 2018 | Company | link |
| S123 | Air Pros receives Peak Rock financing (10 locations, 250 staff) | Sept 8, 2021 | Company | link |
| S125 | Craft dossier: Apex brands by year | 2026 | Weak | link |
| S126 | Echelon Reports: Apex platform file (Frontier, 3 brands, 2024) | 2026 | Weak | link |
| S127 | S&P Global Ratings: Apex proposed $1B notes (headline and index summary only) | Oct 2026 | Weak | link |